Friday, September 10, 2010

My NFL Preview

Here it is.  I think the NFL is completely wide open and anyone could hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end of the season...well almost anyone.  I'll go through each division and give some thoughts for each team.  Teams are listed as to how I think they'll finish.  No records, because I don't have that kind of time and I'm not that good.

AFC East
New England Patriots- I'm actually kind of hesitant putting them up hear to win the division.  There's some age on the offense and Randy Moss is starting to whine a little, which usually doesn't bode well for the teams he's played for.  The rise of the Dolphins and Jets give the Patriots a small opening of their dominance in this division.
Miami Dolphins- I really like this team and think they could possibly win this division.  I'm very partial to former Wolverines Jake Long and Chad Henne.  I can't put them over the top to win the division because I don't know much about their defense other than I like that they picked up Karlos Dansby.  That guy is a S-T-U-D...at least in the land of fantasy football.  I'm not too happy with them sending Greg Camarillo off to the Vikings.  He seemed primed to have a pretty good season especially with the pick up of Brandon Marshall.  That actually might be the move that cost them the division, but not a wild-card spot.  They make the playoff hunt with a strong running game.
 New York Jets- I can't stand this team...actually, I can't stand hearing about this team.  They really have an uphill battle in this division (remember, they barely slipped into the playoffs as they played a "starter benched" Colts team last year to help make a wild-card spot).  All the signings of these "superstars" makes them look like the Redskins from about a decade ago (remember when they had Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Brad Johnson, etc. and did nothing?).  QB Mark Sanchez, after the Jets signed guys like Tomlinson, Antonie Cromartie and Jason Taylor, said something to the effect that he couldn't believe who they kept signing, it's like a dream team.  Yeah, if it was 2003, but it's 2010, and your team really isn't that good.  Braylon Edwards hasn't been able to catch a ball since he was at Michigan, Santonio Holmes has to serve a 4 game suspension and no matter how good Revis is, there is going to be some rust after missing all of training camp.  One last thing...over the last decade or so, I've come to realize there are two people you don't draft for your NFL team...Michigan running backs and USC quarterbacks.
Buffalo Bills- When you have a competition for your starting QB throughout camp, and the starter from last year wins it...that's not good.  At least they have rookie running back CJ Spiller to add some kind of excitement.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens- I'm totally buying into the hype of this team.  Bringing in Anquan Boldin was a great move.  Bringing in TJ Houshmandzadeh for the #3 WR was another great move.  Joe Flacco is really going to like playing QB this year.  Ray Rice is great.  The defense isn't the juggernaut it used to be with big question marks in the secondary, but they can pull off winning this division.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Roethlisberger's suspension is going to effect this team, but RB Rashard Mendenhall will bring back that power running game that the Steeler fans love.  The defense will still be top notch, but I think they'll just miss the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals- This is an implosion waiting to happen.  They kind of came out of nowhere last year, but they won't surprise anyone this year.  I give the TO and Ochocinco honeymoon about 6-7 weeks, and then it gets ugly. 
Cleveland Browns- Definitely heading in the right direction with bringing in Holmgren for front office stuff, but they're still a ways off from competing in this division.  I don't think Mangini stays after this season.

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts- This team stays stacked all the time.  RB Joseph Addai kind of looks like he might be wearing down, who cares?  Donald Brown looks ready to go.  They get safety Bob Sanders back, and if he can stay healthy, their defense is that much better (remember, they made it to the Super Bowl without Sanders).  This all comes down to Peyton Manning's health.  He stays upright, the sky's the limit, he gets hurt, they're done.
Houston Texans- I think this is the year they finally get a wildcard, just edging out the Steelers.  The offense looks pretty good, though if TE Owen Daniels can't come back from a torn ACL, that will be a bit of a hit.  Cushing's suspension and losing CB Dunta Robinson won't help the defense at all.  Like almost every other defense in the NFL, these guys have some question marks in the secondary.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Getting DE Aaron Kampman will help their pass rush, especially since he'll be playing a 4-3 DE instead of a 3-4 OLB.  That pick up alone could erase the one game difference between them and the Titans last year, but it still doesn't get them into the playoffs.
Tennessee Titans- I was really torn in a couple of my fantasy leagues on whether or not to keep or pick RB Chris Johnson.  Most running backs after a 2,000 yard season can't even break the 1,000 yard threshold the next season, and Johnson is small, meaning more wear and tear on his body.  We'll see...but there are too many other questions on this team to take them out of the cellar in this division.  What's up with the defense?  Will a wide receiver please make them self known?  Can Vince Young play consistently let alone be a viable threat?

AFC West
San Diego Chargers- WR Malcolm Floyd would have had a monster year if Vincent Jackson came back, but it doesn't look like Jackson is coming back, Floyd should have a good year.  Rookie RB Ryan Matthews will make things interesting and QB Philip Rivers is good.  The defense is pretty good, not as great as it used to be.  Hopefully CB Jammer's age doesn't catch up to him and Merriman can stay healthy.
Denver Broncos- The health of the running backs is a slight concern.  The loss of WR Brandon Marshall doesn't help.  The loss of LB Elvis Dumervil really doesn't help.  QB Kyle Orton is serviceable, but without a real receiving threat (Eddie Royal was only as good as the coverage that was not on him when Marshall was around), I'm not sure how serviceable he is.  It will be difficult for the Broncos to win a lot this year.
Oakland Raiders- I think bringing in QB Jason Cambell was a good move (he'll have a lot less pressure on him and should be able to get comfortable playing the game).  Letting go of Jamarcus Russell was definitely an "addition by subtraction" move.  Actually, on paper this team doesn't look too bad.  They have young wide receivers that now have a QB that can get them the ball.  Zach Miller is a good TE.  Even if RB Darren McFadden can't live up to his draft status from a couple years ago, Michael Bush is more than serviceable.  Unlike most defenses in the league, these guys have a pretty good secondary.
Kansas City Chiefs- QB Matt Cassell needs to step it up, or the Chiefs need to be kind to WR Dwayne Bowe and trade him to a team that will use his skills.  I'm not sure how much RB Thomas Jones has left in his tank, but it's okay, Jamaal Charles is pretty good and a fun one to maybe watch for is the 3rd string RB, Jackie Battle.  The guy is a beast at 6'2" and 238lbs.  The defense doesn't look good, hence this team stays in the cellar.

NFC East
New York Giants- This team somewhat intrigues me.  They have a decent QB, running game, TE and WR's...just decent enough to help them win this division.  I still really like their defense, though I couldn't name a single linebacker.  I think these guys win the division because the Eagles are starting a new QB, the pressure on Dallas and Washington not quite there even with McNabb.
Dallas Cowboys- This team has a huge amount of pressure to make it to the Super Bowl as it has a viable shot at being the first team to play a Super Bowl on its home field.  The problem is, I don't think QB Tony Romo can handle that kind of pressure, at least I think he's shown that he can't handle pressure situations that well.  Jason Witten is a great TE.  I'm not completely sold on Miles Austin just yet (I need a little more than half a season to declare someone awesome).  Roy Williams absolutely baffles me.  How can a physical specimen like that not play well?  He looks absolutely imposing to me.  Felix Jones needs to stay healthy for that running game to work just right.  The offensive line is in flux a bit.  The defense is pretty solid.  But the pressure is too great.  Still talented enough to make the playoffs, but not make the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia Eagles- Andy Reid is a really good coach and he's pretty excited about new QB Kevin Kolb, I'll trust Andy Reid.  This will be a bit of a hiccup this season as Kolb gets comfortable.  There is some young offensive talent on this team and a bright future for it.  The defense is a bit of a different matter.  It's a great scheme, but I'm not sure if the personnel is there to keep pulling it off.
Washington Redskins- Pretty neat how they got McNabb, huh?  Definitely not enough for this team to do anything, though.  First, other than Chris Cooley, who is McNabb going to throw the ball to?  Santana Moss?  Joey Galloway?  Not exactly striking fear in defenses.  Can Clinton Portis come back at the age of 29 from injury and perform the way he used to (there's no one really any good behind him)?  The defense is switching to a 3-4, and though Jim Haslett is a good d-coordinator, there will be bumps.  Also, isn't there something going on with some guy named Haynesworth?

NFC South
New Orleans Saints- The big talk of course is will they suffer from a Super Bowl slump, and I think they will.  Not only did these guys win the Super Bowl, but there's quite a bit of talk on how they took that city on their shoulders and gave them hope and joy.  Doing those things is no small feat, and it will be hard to duplicate that.  Drew Brees is all world, and I think he does it with pretty average receiving talent around him.  The defense isn't great, it's opportunistic and I don't think the ball will bounce their way as many times as it did last season.  They should win this division, but once they get in the playoffs, they're going to be gassed.  They've played quite a bit of football, and now they're definitely going to get the best from every team they play because everyone is going to want to beat the team that won the Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons- These guys have some pretty decent young talent to go with veterans Mike Peterson and John Abraham on the defensive side of the ball.  Picking up CB Dunta Robinson wasn't a bad move either.  I like QB Matt Ryan and he's got some decent WR's in Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, but  can TE Tony Gonzalez keep up his play and can Michael Turner return to form from an injury.  A few too many questions to leap frog them over the Saints.
Carolina Panthers- I love this teams running game.  Matt Moore looks like a serviceable QB, but WR Steve Smith seems to be slipping.  The defense has a few play makers in Jon Beason and Chris Gamble, but I don't see them being talented enough to be better than the Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- QB Josh Freeman had a bit of a coming out last season and looks somewhat promising.  Rookie WR Mike Williams is turning a few heads.  TE Kellen Winslow catches quite a few balls, but I don't think his play is matching the hype had coming out of Miami.  I also don't think RB Cadillac Williams will ever regain his rookie form.  On the defensive side, I don't think the new "high tech Tampa 2.1" defense is going to make much of a difference.  Barrett Ruud is pretty good and Rhonde Barber is old.

NFC West
Sanfrancisco 49ers- I like coach Mike Singeltary as he provides a bit of a spark in his players to help them win.  I don't believe QB Alex Smith is that good, and wouldn't mind seeing if David Carr has something left in the tank.  However, TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree give Smith better than average targets to throw to, and Frank Gore is definitely serviceable.  The best player on this team, though, is LB Patrick Willis and I think he's the one who will help this team win the division, though they kind of win it by default as the other three teams in this division are so bad.
Seattle Seahawks- Unfortunately, this team is mainly just a quick safe haven for its coach Pete Carroll who was about to get into a whole lot of trouble at USC.  Double unfortunately, Pete Carroll isn't the greatest NFL coach.  Triple Unfortunately, this team really doesn't have a lot.  If Matt Hasselbeck can stay upright, they should win a few games.  The running back situation is kind of a mess.  Not much to be impressed with at wide receiver.  The defense has a couple of names you would recognize, but not enough to turn this team into a winner.  Don't be too impressed with me putting this team in second place of this division.  If it's possible for 3 teams in a division to end the season below .500, this is the division that will do it.
Arizona Cardinals- Simply put, this team lost way too much talent via free agency or retirement to stay competitive.  These guys really aren't going to be good.  They have three players that can wow you in WR Larry Fitzgerald, DT Darnell Dockett and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but without a good QB this team is doomed.
St. Louis Rams- I hear they're going to start rookie Sam Bradford at QB.  I'll be praying that he doesn't get killed behind that offensive line.  I really like RB Steven Jackson and teams will stack their defense to stop him.  It won't work very well as he's pretty powerful, but the risk of injury is definitely there.  The defense has a couple of good players in DE Chris Long, LB James Laurinaitis and S Atogwe...actually, their defense should be better than it is with these players. 

NFC North
Green Bay Packers- One name that you will hear a lot, if you haven't already, is Jermichael Finley.  Tight end extraordinaire.  Actually what's really nice about him is that it will open up a lot of other players, and that offense is stacked.  I think the o-line issues from the first half of last year are far behind.  The big question mark is that secondary.  Raw, but extremely fast rookie Sam Shields will play nickle CB and could get burned a little bit.  There's also a rookie at safety named Morgan Burnett, but he looks like a "ball hawk" and will probably contribute a couple of picks.  The punt and kick off coverage units of this team are a bit scary too.  Expect to see a lot of points both for the Packers and against, unless that secondary can shore itself up.
Minnesota Vikings- Not having WR Sidney Rice is going to hurt.  Having Brad Childress as coach is going to hurt more.  His Favre-slobbering may have clouded his judgment on what he has on offense.  RB Adrian Peterson may fumble more than you like, but he also gains a lot more yards than defenses like, and Childress doesn't seem to know how to use this kid ever since he became enthralled with Favre.  This defense also has issues in the secondary, and though Jared Allen is the popular DE on this team, fans might want to pay attention to another DE named Ray Edwards.  Allen actually could be slipping.  He had 14.5 sacks last season, but 7.5 of them came against one team, the Packers (before they shored up their offensive line) meaning he would have had a single digit sack season.  Also, teams can avoid the "Williams Wall" and run at Allen instead.
Detroit Lions- This team seems to have really turned the corner.  The drafting of DT Ndamukong Suh and RB Jahvid Best really has Detroit fans excited...and they should be.  The defense still has a pretty long way to go, but that offense is definitely coming together.  Makes me kind of nervous as Packer fan...not that nervous though.  The Lions are better than last place in the division, but above .500 is pushing it a little bit.
Chicago Bears- I really think this team is in trouble.  I don't think o-coordinator Mike Martz is going to change much.  I look at QB Jay Cutler as the "Brett Favre of Bizarro World".  Cutler will try to make the impossible throw, and unlike Favre who would get a completion, Cutler gets intercepted.  He's got a strong arm, but is inaccurate, and that doesn't bode well in the NFL.  The defense on this team is aging (who knows if Urlacher can even stay healthy).  The offensive line has issues, and though the pick up of RB Chester Taylor is a nice touch, that's all it is.  A nice touch when this team needs a hard slap.

Playoffs:
AFC Division winners: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chargers
AFC Wildcards: Dolphins, Texans
AFC Championship: Ravens over Colts

NFC Division winners: Giants, Saints, 49ers, Packers
NFC Wildcards: Cowboys, Vikings
NFC Championship: Packers over Giants

Super Bowl:  Packers over Ravens

Happy Football!

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