Thursday, September 23, 2010

Panic time?

Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books and who would've thought the Vikings and Cowboys would be 0-2.  Let's talk some football!

NFL
Packers v. Bears
Surprisingly, this is a big game for both of these teams.  Based on my predictions, I expected the Bears to be 0-2 already.  I also thought Cutler wouldn't fit well in Martz' system and would still throw up the picks.  Then the Bears go into Dallas and win...pretty solidly.  I've got to give this team some credit.  But I'm not about to dole it out.  They barely beat Detroit, and last week I discussed the ineptitude of the Dallas Cowboys offense.  The Bears defense have given up only one TD pass this season, however, are ranked 27th in the league in passing yards given up.  Last week, Tony Romo passed for 374 yards.  The two interceptions is what killed him.  If Rodgers throws for 374 yards with the accuracy he typically displays, this will at least become a shootout, if not a romp for the Packers.  The Bears defense have yet to face a team with the gauntlet of receivers that the Packers have.  The Bears offense is starting to click, but their o-line is leaky, and that could spell disaster for the Bears with NFL sack leader Clay Matthews coming to town.

"But what about these 2-0 Packers?", you say.  "Sure, they beat the Eagles on the road.  But the Bills?  Come on.  The Packers haven't really played a good team either!"  What about it?  I discussed last week how the Packers can win even when their not clicking on all cylinders.  And the Bills game?  They did exactly what they were supposed to do, win in a romp 34-7.  This Packer team is too talented, even on the road in Chicago, to lose this game.  I don't think it will be a blowout, but I've pleasantly surprised before.

Vikings vs. Lions
Oh...my....goodness!  Childress finally starts using Peterson (145 rushing yds. last week) the way he should and they just get stonewalled.  I gotta give that Miami defense a whole heck of a lot of credit.  Minnesota has the ball with under 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter, 1st and 10 from the Miami 10 yard line, 4 run plays (which I'm cool with as Favre was way off that day) for 9 yards.  Studly, my friends, absolutely studly.  I didn't know the Miami defense had it in them.  On the flip side, the Minnesota defense is looking awfully good.  Both pass and run defense are in the top ten of the league, and they've played the Saints in New Orleans.  The defense has only given up 3 TD's (one of the TD's this last week was from a Favre fumble recovered in the end zone by Miami).  And that's why I think the Vikings will be able to pull this off and win at home against the Lions.  The Lions defense cannot do what the Miami defense did, plus that Detroit secondary is so ugly that Favre could have a field day and boost his confidence.

My other NFL picks: 49ers, Patriots, Saints, Giants, Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Cowboys, Redskins, Jaguars, Colts, Raiders, Chargers, Dolphins (LW: 9-7, 9-7, 5-10 (the record of picking the favorite with the point spread) Overall: 19-13, 19-13, 11-17)

College
Michigan v. Bowling Green
I would love to say that the Wolverines are going to win in a landslide...but did you see Michigan's defense last week?  No, you didn't.  When an offense puts up 42 at home, they shouldn't have to win by 5 to UMass!  The offense is electric, thank God!  But that defense is absolutely anemic.  Michigan drops in all polls and is now sitting at 21 in the AP.

Other games to watch
#1 Alabama at #10 Arkansas- Did you catch the ex-Michigan QB's playing last week?  Threet of Arizona St. against Wisconsin, and Mallet of Arkansas vs. Georgia?  Yeah, Mallet didn't like the hiring of Rich Rodriguez, and took his stuff to Arkansas where he has, in no subtle terms, placed himself in the conversation of the top 5 for the Heisman.  Now Arkansas is 3-0 and haven't played a ranked team, while 'Bama has beat a ranked team in Penn St.  But it's early in the college season and rankings are deceiving.  I think this Arkansas team is better tested, has the hot hand at QB and is playing at home.  I'm totally picking the upset, Arkansas over Alabama.  #12 South Carolina at #17 Auburn- This looks like a pretty good match up and Steve Spurrier could have South Carolina finally moving in the right direction.  #22 West Virginia @ #15 LSU- Look back at what I said about early season rankings in college football.  LSU barely got by a completely depleted UNC team, and the only win worth noting for W. Virginia is Marshall, but Marshall is no good.

Those with a vested interest in Kenosha
Bradford
Another week, another crushing victory.  Though they got out of the gate slow, Bradford beat up Oak Creek 55-20.  That's the most points they've given up this season.  Are we seeing some slippage?  I think not...Oak Creek just has some better offense that previous teams.  They stay #1 in the state and move up from #74 in the nation to #63.  Next up, a visit to Horlick Field against the 1-3 Racine Horlick Rebels.

Tremper
They stay 4-0 by squeaking  by Muskego 20-16 and move up in the state poll from #10 to #6.  They take on an 0-4 Racine Case team this Friday.

Remember that Franklin team I was talking about last week?  They shutout their opponents last game.  They've given up a total of 6 points in 4 games this season.  WOW!

Final thought
I hate the idea of an 18 game regular season schedule in the NFL.  I actually think 16 games is perfect.  Look at the scheduling and how it is set up right now.  You play all the teams in one division in your conference, all the teams of one division in the opposite conference, teams in your division twice and then the two teams in your conference who placed in the same spot you did in your division.  The ease and sense of tiebreakers alone makes the schedule an amazing set up.  You throw 2 extra games in the mix, it kind of goes down the toilet with one simple question...who are those two extra games going to be against? 

I personally think they should stick with 16 regular season and and just chop the preseason to two games.  Get these players motivated faster to play well.  Currently there's two weeks of training camp and then four weeks of preseason football...a total of 6 weeks to "get ready" for the season.  Are you kidding me?  With OTA's and various minicamps, they don't need this.  Have two weeks of training camp and two preseason games.  You cut down the risk of injury and put a better product on the field.  Having 18 regular season games doesn't do this.  The risk of injury goes up, and by week 18 and 19 the product on the field could be pretty ugly and useless, kind of like the two preseason games we have right now that would be chopped in the 18 game schedule.  And please don't try to change my mind with larger rosters and an extra bye week.  That just depletes the quality and adds another week of me not being able to see my team play. 

The 18 game schedule is being driven by greed and the current state of our national economy shows what happens when greed is at the center of what we think is progress.

Happy Football!

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Temper yourself

It's week 2 of the NFL and there's plenty of overhappy people, and underhappy people.  It's only one game, and though it is the shortest of the major sports seasons with only 16 games to enjoy every year, there's still a lot of football left and anything can happen.  Let's talk football!

NFL
Packers v. Bills
(Follow your own advice, Dave, and temper yourself) I'm not talking about the loss of Ryan Grant for the year (though I'll touch on that in a minute).  I'm talking about the nervousness of going into this second game and thinking about last year.  Let me refresh your memory.  Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals lost a heart breaker to Denver, 12-7 then came into Lambeau Field and proceeded to pounce (pun intended) on the Packers, winning 31-24.  The Bills narrowly (not so much "heartbreaking" fashion) lost to the Dolphins 15-10 last week.  Could we see a repeat performance this year?  I think not.  That Bengals team was more talented than this Bills team...a lot more talented.  Sure, the Bills look to have a pretty good run game, but that's it.  And that plays into the strength of the Packers defense being the #1 rated run defense last season.

But Dave, didn't you see how Vick torched them on the ground last week?  Yep, and I also noticed that they stuck with a defensive game plan they had installed for the starter, Kolb.  Which meant that wide receivers were covered and an extremely athletic Vick, ala 2004/5, could run the open field when hurried out of the pocket (contrary to movies and TV shows, NFL teams don't often change game plans in the middle of a quarter and almost never game plan for the back-up QB).  Packer fans should be pretty pleased with the victory (though somewhat ugly) as Philly is a pretty difficult place to win in (just ask the Packers as that was there first win there in 48 years).  And don't panic about Rodgers' inaccuracies.  everyone has a bad game.  Instead, look it at as Don Banks of Sports Illustrated stated in his weekly power rankings, "...it's already apparent the Packers can win even without firing on all cylinders."

Packers win against this Bills team, and I think it's big.

Now what about Ryan Grant?  Now doubt a bummer of a loss not just on the field, but apparently in the locker room.  This does not, however, squash Super Bowl dreams.  Why not?  Take a look at last season when only 2 of the top 5 rushing teams in the league made it to the playoffs and 3 of the bottom 5 made it (and that includes the Indianapolis Colts, who were ranked at the bottom). The Packers just need someone serviceable in there, and Brandon Jackson should be at least that filling in for Grant.

Vikings v. Dolphins
Tough loss last week for the Vikes, and I agree with all the pundits about Favre's rustiness, tiredness and a lack of "trust" with his receivers from not being in training camp.  Adrian Peterson looked pretty good on some of those runs, but like I said in my NFL preview last week, Childress has no clue how to use this kid.  And that, Viking fans, should tick you off.  On the Vikings last offensive drive of the game, with 9:10 left in the 4th quarter trailing only 14-9,  a total of 8 plays were called.  Of those 8 plays, 1 was a punt and the seven others were passes.  Yes, that would be a big fat goose egg in the run department.  Truth is, not a single run play was called in the entire 4th quarter.  However, in the 3rd quarter, Peterson had runs of 13, 6, 1, 1, 6 and 3 yards equalling a 5 yards per carry stat.  It baffles me why Childress wants to ignore this guy, especially when his team is on the road and Favre was definitely not on his game.

The Vikings are home this week, and that alone should get them the victory.  It could be a high scoring affair for them as the Dolphins defense isn't exactly in the upper echelon.

Bears v. Cowboys
This is actually somewhat of a head scratcher.  The Cowboys offense looks absolutely inept, and with the talent they have, there are no excuses.  The Cowboys defense looked pretty good, though the Redskins offense isn't exactly imposing, even with McNabb.  The Bears really don't make any sense.  Look at these stat lines, Cutler- 372 yds passing, 2 TD's, 1 Int for a 108.3 rating, Forte- 201 total yards and the Bears defense held the Lions to 168 total yards and forced 3 turnovers.  This should have been a blowout, but no, it ended with the Bears winning by a whole 5 points and with the help of, quite possibly, the dumbest rule in sports.  On top of it, the Lions lost their starting QB for half of the game and that defensive secondary of the Lions really isn't that good.  How did the Bears avoid the end zone so well?  Oh yeah, the Bears had 4 turnovers themselves. Offensive stats shown above with only 2 total touchdowns to show for it + 4 turnovers = inept, in my opinion.

So the Bears and Cowboys both had defenses that fared well against poor offenses, and both the Cowboys and Bears are rather inept on offense.  Ummmmm, Cowboys win because they're the home team.  And who knows?  Maybe the light turns on for the Cowboys offense this week.

Lions v. Eagles
I would so choose the Lions in this one if both teams starting QB's were healthy and playing.  But Stafford's hurt and his replacement Shaun Hill is not good.  For the Eagles, Kolb is hurt, and Vick looked like a superstar last week once he was rushed out of the pocket.  The Lions have a pretty decent defensive line which will force Vick out of the pocket some more, again making him look like a superstar as he runs all over the open field.  Vick will play better than Hill, meaning the Eagles will play better than the Lions and win.

However, kudos to the Lions head coach for keeping his cool after the last game.  This could put a fire in the belly of those Detroit Lions and help them play angry.  Usually playing angry is good for a football team, but Shaun Hill isn't the "angry" type and that's what derails this train.

Other picks: Falcons, Ravens, Chiefs, Titans, Panthers, Broncos, Raiders, Patriots, Chargers, Texans, Giants and Saints LW: 10-6, 10-6 (This second record is what I call the "Vegas Record", in which if I decided to choose only the favorite teams to win, that would be my record.  I don't always do that, for example, in my personal picks this week I picked "underdogs" Giants and Chiefs to win.  I just want to see how much better or worse I am than Vegas at picking winners.  Point spreads are not taken into account)

College
Michigan v. Massachusetts
Hello Michigan.  Welcome back to the top 25, it's been a while.  Why don't you stay for a little bit?  Hello Denard Robinson.  Welcome to the Heisman Trophy discussion.  Has anyone ever told you that you like Desmond Howard?  UMass visits the Big House this week. Since this is football and not basketball, Michigan wins big.

Other games to watch
#9 Iowa at #24 Arizona.  Even though it's in Arizona, Iowa should win it.  #10 Florida at Tennessee.  A nice "rivalry" game that Florida should win with Tennessee still hurting after the Lane Kiffin debacle and from the 48-13 pounding they took from #7 Oregon last week.  However, I'm still not sold on the "post-Tebow" Gators. #8 Nebraska at Washington.  Why? Because Washington has the possible future #1 overall pick of next year's NFL draft playing at QB.  Oh, and Nebraska plays a completely different style of offense.  This actually could be a good game...has some upset potential.

Those with a vested interest in Kenosha
Bradford
They pasted Racine Park 56-6 last week.  They face Oak Creek this week, which should be a bit of a tougher test, but still a win.  They stay atop the rankings in the state, and oh, what do I see here?  The Red Devils are ranked #74 of the RivalsHigh 100 national poll.  What's that?  This the first time a Kenosha County high school has been ranked in the top 100 since the '90's?  Sweet.

Tremper
Tremper crushed Horlick last week 48-7.  The have a nifty running back in Toneo Gulley who has rushed for a total of 413 yards his last two games.  They move up to #10 in the state coaches poll and look to beat Muskego this Friday.

Bradford and Tremper look to be the cream of the crop in the Southeast Conference, but don't count out Franklin who is also 3-0, and though their 30 pts./game for is nice, it's the 2 pts./game against that's even nicer.  Mark your calendars for Oct. 14th when Bradford (51 pts./game for) faces off with Franklin.

Final Thought
What a class act by Reggie Bush to give that Heisman back.  Way to go...wait, what's that?  You've already used the Heisman for what you needed it for with endorsement deals and the money that comes with being the #2 overall draft choice of the NFL?  Yeah, I don't get this and I think we're going to still see this type of stuff going on because the NCAA isn't hitting people where it hurts. 

So what if you vacate wins and trophies?  It's not like you look at the list of those who won the Heisman in the past and say, "My goodness.  There's a blank space in 2005.  Were all the college players in 2005 so horrible that no one could win the Heisman?"  No, when someone asks, the response will start with, "Well, actually, Reggie Bush won it, but..."  It doesn't matter. 

You want to see people stop doing this stuff, start fining people.  Hit the pocket books.   For Reggie Bush, that running backs coach at USC that knew about stuff, the former AD at USC, Lloyd Lake (the agent in the middle of all this) and even Pete Carroll (come on, you don't think he high tailed it out of USC because he had an itch to coach a bad team in the NFL, do you?) a minimum of $50,000 each.  I also think the coaches and AD should be banned for one year from filling in any similar position (yeah, even at the youth level). 

I actually don't like the sanctions imposed upon the school of losing 10 scholarships for the next three years and not being able to play in bowl games for the next two.  I think there should be more.  I think USC should have to pay the NCAA every cent it received for winning (and losing) any bowl games it played in while Reggie Bush was on the football team there.  Then the NCAA should pool all that money (the payback from USC and the fines) and distribute it evenly to all the schools USC played against while Reggie Bush was on the team.  If the NCAA wants this type of thing to stop, this is what it needs to do.  Drastic times call for drastic measures, and vacating wins and trophies aren't drastic.

Happy Football!

Friday, September 10, 2010

My NFL Preview

Here it is.  I think the NFL is completely wide open and anyone could hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end of the season...well almost anyone.  I'll go through each division and give some thoughts for each team.  Teams are listed as to how I think they'll finish.  No records, because I don't have that kind of time and I'm not that good.

AFC East
New England Patriots- I'm actually kind of hesitant putting them up hear to win the division.  There's some age on the offense and Randy Moss is starting to whine a little, which usually doesn't bode well for the teams he's played for.  The rise of the Dolphins and Jets give the Patriots a small opening of their dominance in this division.
Miami Dolphins- I really like this team and think they could possibly win this division.  I'm very partial to former Wolverines Jake Long and Chad Henne.  I can't put them over the top to win the division because I don't know much about their defense other than I like that they picked up Karlos Dansby.  That guy is a S-T-U-D...at least in the land of fantasy football.  I'm not too happy with them sending Greg Camarillo off to the Vikings.  He seemed primed to have a pretty good season especially with the pick up of Brandon Marshall.  That actually might be the move that cost them the division, but not a wild-card spot.  They make the playoff hunt with a strong running game.
 New York Jets- I can't stand this team...actually, I can't stand hearing about this team.  They really have an uphill battle in this division (remember, they barely slipped into the playoffs as they played a "starter benched" Colts team last year to help make a wild-card spot).  All the signings of these "superstars" makes them look like the Redskins from about a decade ago (remember when they had Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Brad Johnson, etc. and did nothing?).  QB Mark Sanchez, after the Jets signed guys like Tomlinson, Antonie Cromartie and Jason Taylor, said something to the effect that he couldn't believe who they kept signing, it's like a dream team.  Yeah, if it was 2003, but it's 2010, and your team really isn't that good.  Braylon Edwards hasn't been able to catch a ball since he was at Michigan, Santonio Holmes has to serve a 4 game suspension and no matter how good Revis is, there is going to be some rust after missing all of training camp.  One last thing...over the last decade or so, I've come to realize there are two people you don't draft for your NFL team...Michigan running backs and USC quarterbacks.
Buffalo Bills- When you have a competition for your starting QB throughout camp, and the starter from last year wins it...that's not good.  At least they have rookie running back CJ Spiller to add some kind of excitement.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens- I'm totally buying into the hype of this team.  Bringing in Anquan Boldin was a great move.  Bringing in TJ Houshmandzadeh for the #3 WR was another great move.  Joe Flacco is really going to like playing QB this year.  Ray Rice is great.  The defense isn't the juggernaut it used to be with big question marks in the secondary, but they can pull off winning this division.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Roethlisberger's suspension is going to effect this team, but RB Rashard Mendenhall will bring back that power running game that the Steeler fans love.  The defense will still be top notch, but I think they'll just miss the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals- This is an implosion waiting to happen.  They kind of came out of nowhere last year, but they won't surprise anyone this year.  I give the TO and Ochocinco honeymoon about 6-7 weeks, and then it gets ugly. 
Cleveland Browns- Definitely heading in the right direction with bringing in Holmgren for front office stuff, but they're still a ways off from competing in this division.  I don't think Mangini stays after this season.

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts- This team stays stacked all the time.  RB Joseph Addai kind of looks like he might be wearing down, who cares?  Donald Brown looks ready to go.  They get safety Bob Sanders back, and if he can stay healthy, their defense is that much better (remember, they made it to the Super Bowl without Sanders).  This all comes down to Peyton Manning's health.  He stays upright, the sky's the limit, he gets hurt, they're done.
Houston Texans- I think this is the year they finally get a wildcard, just edging out the Steelers.  The offense looks pretty good, though if TE Owen Daniels can't come back from a torn ACL, that will be a bit of a hit.  Cushing's suspension and losing CB Dunta Robinson won't help the defense at all.  Like almost every other defense in the NFL, these guys have some question marks in the secondary.
Jacksonville Jaguars- Getting DE Aaron Kampman will help their pass rush, especially since he'll be playing a 4-3 DE instead of a 3-4 OLB.  That pick up alone could erase the one game difference between them and the Titans last year, but it still doesn't get them into the playoffs.
Tennessee Titans- I was really torn in a couple of my fantasy leagues on whether or not to keep or pick RB Chris Johnson.  Most running backs after a 2,000 yard season can't even break the 1,000 yard threshold the next season, and Johnson is small, meaning more wear and tear on his body.  We'll see...but there are too many other questions on this team to take them out of the cellar in this division.  What's up with the defense?  Will a wide receiver please make them self known?  Can Vince Young play consistently let alone be a viable threat?

AFC West
San Diego Chargers- WR Malcolm Floyd would have had a monster year if Vincent Jackson came back, but it doesn't look like Jackson is coming back, Floyd should have a good year.  Rookie RB Ryan Matthews will make things interesting and QB Philip Rivers is good.  The defense is pretty good, not as great as it used to be.  Hopefully CB Jammer's age doesn't catch up to him and Merriman can stay healthy.
Denver Broncos- The health of the running backs is a slight concern.  The loss of WR Brandon Marshall doesn't help.  The loss of LB Elvis Dumervil really doesn't help.  QB Kyle Orton is serviceable, but without a real receiving threat (Eddie Royal was only as good as the coverage that was not on him when Marshall was around), I'm not sure how serviceable he is.  It will be difficult for the Broncos to win a lot this year.
Oakland Raiders- I think bringing in QB Jason Cambell was a good move (he'll have a lot less pressure on him and should be able to get comfortable playing the game).  Letting go of Jamarcus Russell was definitely an "addition by subtraction" move.  Actually, on paper this team doesn't look too bad.  They have young wide receivers that now have a QB that can get them the ball.  Zach Miller is a good TE.  Even if RB Darren McFadden can't live up to his draft status from a couple years ago, Michael Bush is more than serviceable.  Unlike most defenses in the league, these guys have a pretty good secondary.
Kansas City Chiefs- QB Matt Cassell needs to step it up, or the Chiefs need to be kind to WR Dwayne Bowe and trade him to a team that will use his skills.  I'm not sure how much RB Thomas Jones has left in his tank, but it's okay, Jamaal Charles is pretty good and a fun one to maybe watch for is the 3rd string RB, Jackie Battle.  The guy is a beast at 6'2" and 238lbs.  The defense doesn't look good, hence this team stays in the cellar.

NFC East
New York Giants- This team somewhat intrigues me.  They have a decent QB, running game, TE and WR's...just decent enough to help them win this division.  I still really like their defense, though I couldn't name a single linebacker.  I think these guys win the division because the Eagles are starting a new QB, the pressure on Dallas and Washington not quite there even with McNabb.
Dallas Cowboys- This team has a huge amount of pressure to make it to the Super Bowl as it has a viable shot at being the first team to play a Super Bowl on its home field.  The problem is, I don't think QB Tony Romo can handle that kind of pressure, at least I think he's shown that he can't handle pressure situations that well.  Jason Witten is a great TE.  I'm not completely sold on Miles Austin just yet (I need a little more than half a season to declare someone awesome).  Roy Williams absolutely baffles me.  How can a physical specimen like that not play well?  He looks absolutely imposing to me.  Felix Jones needs to stay healthy for that running game to work just right.  The offensive line is in flux a bit.  The defense is pretty solid.  But the pressure is too great.  Still talented enough to make the playoffs, but not make the Super Bowl.
Philadelphia Eagles- Andy Reid is a really good coach and he's pretty excited about new QB Kevin Kolb, I'll trust Andy Reid.  This will be a bit of a hiccup this season as Kolb gets comfortable.  There is some young offensive talent on this team and a bright future for it.  The defense is a bit of a different matter.  It's a great scheme, but I'm not sure if the personnel is there to keep pulling it off.
Washington Redskins- Pretty neat how they got McNabb, huh?  Definitely not enough for this team to do anything, though.  First, other than Chris Cooley, who is McNabb going to throw the ball to?  Santana Moss?  Joey Galloway?  Not exactly striking fear in defenses.  Can Clinton Portis come back at the age of 29 from injury and perform the way he used to (there's no one really any good behind him)?  The defense is switching to a 3-4, and though Jim Haslett is a good d-coordinator, there will be bumps.  Also, isn't there something going on with some guy named Haynesworth?

NFC South
New Orleans Saints- The big talk of course is will they suffer from a Super Bowl slump, and I think they will.  Not only did these guys win the Super Bowl, but there's quite a bit of talk on how they took that city on their shoulders and gave them hope and joy.  Doing those things is no small feat, and it will be hard to duplicate that.  Drew Brees is all world, and I think he does it with pretty average receiving talent around him.  The defense isn't great, it's opportunistic and I don't think the ball will bounce their way as many times as it did last season.  They should win this division, but once they get in the playoffs, they're going to be gassed.  They've played quite a bit of football, and now they're definitely going to get the best from every team they play because everyone is going to want to beat the team that won the Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons- These guys have some pretty decent young talent to go with veterans Mike Peterson and John Abraham on the defensive side of the ball.  Picking up CB Dunta Robinson wasn't a bad move either.  I like QB Matt Ryan and he's got some decent WR's in Roddy White and Michael Jenkins, but  can TE Tony Gonzalez keep up his play and can Michael Turner return to form from an injury.  A few too many questions to leap frog them over the Saints.
Carolina Panthers- I love this teams running game.  Matt Moore looks like a serviceable QB, but WR Steve Smith seems to be slipping.  The defense has a few play makers in Jon Beason and Chris Gamble, but I don't see them being talented enough to be better than the Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- QB Josh Freeman had a bit of a coming out last season and looks somewhat promising.  Rookie WR Mike Williams is turning a few heads.  TE Kellen Winslow catches quite a few balls, but I don't think his play is matching the hype had coming out of Miami.  I also don't think RB Cadillac Williams will ever regain his rookie form.  On the defensive side, I don't think the new "high tech Tampa 2.1" defense is going to make much of a difference.  Barrett Ruud is pretty good and Rhonde Barber is old.

NFC West
Sanfrancisco 49ers- I like coach Mike Singeltary as he provides a bit of a spark in his players to help them win.  I don't believe QB Alex Smith is that good, and wouldn't mind seeing if David Carr has something left in the tank.  However, TE Vernon Davis and WR Michael Crabtree give Smith better than average targets to throw to, and Frank Gore is definitely serviceable.  The best player on this team, though, is LB Patrick Willis and I think he's the one who will help this team win the division, though they kind of win it by default as the other three teams in this division are so bad.
Seattle Seahawks- Unfortunately, this team is mainly just a quick safe haven for its coach Pete Carroll who was about to get into a whole lot of trouble at USC.  Double unfortunately, Pete Carroll isn't the greatest NFL coach.  Triple Unfortunately, this team really doesn't have a lot.  If Matt Hasselbeck can stay upright, they should win a few games.  The running back situation is kind of a mess.  Not much to be impressed with at wide receiver.  The defense has a couple of names you would recognize, but not enough to turn this team into a winner.  Don't be too impressed with me putting this team in second place of this division.  If it's possible for 3 teams in a division to end the season below .500, this is the division that will do it.
Arizona Cardinals- Simply put, this team lost way too much talent via free agency or retirement to stay competitive.  These guys really aren't going to be good.  They have three players that can wow you in WR Larry Fitzgerald, DT Darnell Dockett and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but without a good QB this team is doomed.
St. Louis Rams- I hear they're going to start rookie Sam Bradford at QB.  I'll be praying that he doesn't get killed behind that offensive line.  I really like RB Steven Jackson and teams will stack their defense to stop him.  It won't work very well as he's pretty powerful, but the risk of injury is definitely there.  The defense has a couple of good players in DE Chris Long, LB James Laurinaitis and S Atogwe...actually, their defense should be better than it is with these players. 

NFC North
Green Bay Packers- One name that you will hear a lot, if you haven't already, is Jermichael Finley.  Tight end extraordinaire.  Actually what's really nice about him is that it will open up a lot of other players, and that offense is stacked.  I think the o-line issues from the first half of last year are far behind.  The big question mark is that secondary.  Raw, but extremely fast rookie Sam Shields will play nickle CB and could get burned a little bit.  There's also a rookie at safety named Morgan Burnett, but he looks like a "ball hawk" and will probably contribute a couple of picks.  The punt and kick off coverage units of this team are a bit scary too.  Expect to see a lot of points both for the Packers and against, unless that secondary can shore itself up.
Minnesota Vikings- Not having WR Sidney Rice is going to hurt.  Having Brad Childress as coach is going to hurt more.  His Favre-slobbering may have clouded his judgment on what he has on offense.  RB Adrian Peterson may fumble more than you like, but he also gains a lot more yards than defenses like, and Childress doesn't seem to know how to use this kid ever since he became enthralled with Favre.  This defense also has issues in the secondary, and though Jared Allen is the popular DE on this team, fans might want to pay attention to another DE named Ray Edwards.  Allen actually could be slipping.  He had 14.5 sacks last season, but 7.5 of them came against one team, the Packers (before they shored up their offensive line) meaning he would have had a single digit sack season.  Also, teams can avoid the "Williams Wall" and run at Allen instead.
Detroit Lions- This team seems to have really turned the corner.  The drafting of DT Ndamukong Suh and RB Jahvid Best really has Detroit fans excited...and they should be.  The defense still has a pretty long way to go, but that offense is definitely coming together.  Makes me kind of nervous as Packer fan...not that nervous though.  The Lions are better than last place in the division, but above .500 is pushing it a little bit.
Chicago Bears- I really think this team is in trouble.  I don't think o-coordinator Mike Martz is going to change much.  I look at QB Jay Cutler as the "Brett Favre of Bizarro World".  Cutler will try to make the impossible throw, and unlike Favre who would get a completion, Cutler gets intercepted.  He's got a strong arm, but is inaccurate, and that doesn't bode well in the NFL.  The defense on this team is aging (who knows if Urlacher can even stay healthy).  The offensive line has issues, and though the pick up of RB Chester Taylor is a nice touch, that's all it is.  A nice touch when this team needs a hard slap.

Playoffs:
AFC Division winners: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chargers
AFC Wildcards: Dolphins, Texans
AFC Championship: Ravens over Colts

NFC Division winners: Giants, Saints, 49ers, Packers
NFC Wildcards: Cowboys, Vikings
NFC Championship: Packers over Giants

Super Bowl:  Packers over Ravens

Happy Football!

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Opening NFL week

I'm really pumped.  Tonight it all begins.  The crazy hysteria.  Snack food beyond compare.  The euphoric highs, the depressing lows...the roller coaster season of the NFL.  During the off season I had an imaginary calendar of "The Opening Day of the NFL = Christmas Day".  Since the Pack isn't playing tonight, I should change it to "The Opening Day of the Packers = Christmas Day".  Tonight would equal the work Christmas party you go to a week before Christmas day and get a decent gift.  It's a pretty good time, but it's still not Christmas (unless you're a Saints or Vikings fan).  Let's talk some football!

NFL
Packers v. Eagles
Oh the subplots in this one.  The Packers visit a Philadelphia team that looks eerily the same as the 2008 Packers.  Pretty good WR's, pretty good defense, pretty good RB and a QB making his first highly anticipated start after a team legend has left.  The difference?  Philadelphia actually booted out McNabb without McNabb retiring.  This game should be interesting and could be a high scoring affair as Rodgers seems to understand defenses really well, and the Packers secondary looks like a sieve based on what we saw of them last time.  Kolb (Philadelphia QB) could have a big game (though I have no idea how good this kid is), but I expect d-coordinator Dom Capers to pull out the pressure packages and blitz this kid to the moon.  I don't think he'll be able to handle it all and Philadelphia will end up losing.  

Vikings v. Saints
The last time I saw the Vikings play a meaningful game I was jumping around my living room pumping my fists in the air yelling, "He finally did it!  He finally made the back breaking error to end the Vikings season!"  He, of course, is Brett Favre.  What a miracle season that guy had last year.  Can he continue it?  Well, every time I talked about Favre last season he did the exact opposite of what I would say he'd do.  So since it's the beginning of the season, and I'm not sure how this will pan out, I've covering both sides:
  • Point- Of course Brett Favre can do this.  He's a stud.  An ageless wonder with none to compare.  He will throw up 5 TD passes against this Saints defense and come to the rescue.
  • Counterpoint-  Are you kidding me?  Favre is already getting "lubricating" injections into his bum ankle.  He doesn't have his top receiver for at least half of the season and that means Favre will take matters into his own hands.  The last time we saw Favre take matters into his own hands, I was jumping around my living room like a child (see above).
For this game, I think the Saints are way more prepared for this game.  Brees will probably carve up the Vikings secondary.  Favre may have a good game too as I feel the Saints defense is more opportunistic than it is great, but I could see Favre making a mistake that will turn the outcome of this game in favor of the Saints. 

Lions v. Bears
What an awesome display of ugliness for opening weekend.  I am totally not sold on Mike Martz ability to duplicate what he did with the Rams a decade ago.  If he could, he'd still be with the 49ers making Alex Smith actually look like the #1 overall pick he was back in '06.  If Martz couldn't make it work with a kid who came out of a college program that used the spread offense, how in the world would he be able to make it work with interception prone QB Jay Cutler.  Cutler may have a canon of an arm, but a canon is useless without any aim.  This Bears team is sinking fast and I think it will show against a Lions team that seems to be heading  in the right direction after 15 years of futility.  Lions rookie DT Suh could have a monster day against a rather ugly Bears' offensive line.  I'm going a tad against the grain and picking the Lions to win this one (and yes, I know this is in Chicago).  At approximately 3:15p CDT on Sunday, the fans push to fire Lovie Smith will be shouted into the air of the Windy City.

My other NFL picks: Dolphins, Titans, Patriots, Giants, Steelers, Browns, Jaguars, Colts, Cardinals, 49ers, Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers

Before Sunday, I'll post my "NFL preview".  So what if it's after the first game of the season?  I don't get paid to make deadlines.

College
We've got some tasty treats this weekend! 

Michigan v. Notre Dame
Didn't Michigan look studly last week with Denard Robinson carving it up against what is a supposedly good UConn team?  Yeah, they're going to need to do that every week if Rich Rodriguez wants to keep his job.  Michigan has him on a short leash and I think the higher-ups at the school are slightly salivating at the possibility of luring away "Michigan guy" Jim Harbaugh from Stanford next season.  Plus, RichRod's checkered past isn't looking to appealing to Michigan folks.  He's gotten Michigan into some trouble with practice issues, and I heard the NCAA is looking into some stuff at West Virginia while he was coaching over there.  Michigan has always had a clean program, and I can see them giving the boot to anyone who would mess that up no matter how modern that coach is.  Anyways, for this game, I think Michigan has a little more talent than the Fighting Irish and pull this one out.

The other tasty match ups include No. 17 Florida St. at No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 12 Miami at No. 2 Ohio St. and No. 18 Penn St. at No. 1 Alabama.  I'm picking all the home teams in those match ups simply for that reason, they're the home team.  Florida St. is probably the only one that has a chance of upsetting the team it's playing...though I always love a good upset (unless it's against Michigan), and would love to see Miami win their game.

Those with a vested interest in Kenosha
Bradford looks awesome.  They're 2-0 after thumping perennial playoff team Stevens Point 48-17 in Stevens Point (a good 3 hour drive from K-town).  Now ranked #1 in the state by the AP and the Wisssports.net coaches' poll.  Stud RB Melvin Gordon who will be attending Iowa, had 12 carries for 291 yards and 4 TD's (no that's not a misprint).  Way to go Red Devils!  Home against Racine Park is next on the docket.

Tremper is also 2-0 after defeating Hortonville 27-13.  With that, they moved up to #13 in the coaches' poll.

Final thought
Savor the NFL season this year, because there may not be one next year.

Happy Football! 

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

It's all new

It's finally here.  The 2010 football season.  Granted, it's been here for a couple weeks as of the writing of this post, but it's here.  New for this year:  the whole blog.  I've changed the colors, deleted some stuff and have made it my goal to write at least once a week each week of the NFL regular and post season.  It will only be about football.  If you want deep insight into other stuff, you're not going to find it here.  If you want to know more about me and my family (beyond football stuff), ain't happenin' here.  

The blog is titled "The CFW", as you can plainly see.  What does it stand for?  "The Closet Football Writer"  That's what I am.  A fan of the game and specific teams within that game.  I give my thoughts on the NFL (more specifically the NFC North division), College (more specifically Michigan and the Big Ten Conference) and a couple of high schools (more specifically my Alma mater Bradford and it's arch rival Tremper).  I may occasionally throw some fantasy football stuff in there.  These are my thoughts.  Some of them are stupid, some of them are pure genius but most of them fall in between.

I do make my picks for each game in the NFL.  It will simply be who I think is going to win.  I don't consider the spread, so if you're a gambling person, you may not want to use my picks.  Everyone else, have it at.  And if you take my picks and win money with them, how about throwin' me a bone, heh?

That's it for the introduction to this blog.  Have fun reading it, or don't, I can't force you to do either.  Leave any and as many comments as you want.  I may respond to them, but I probably won't.  I will delete any comments that I think are crude in nature, contain swearing and/or have nothing to do with the particular blog post.  Why?  The answer to that has nothing to do with football (refer to the top as to why I will not be answering my own question).

Happy Football!